Gambling Pick Of The Day
By now, Day 1 of the Breeders’ Cup championship series is already in the history books, but there’s still plenty in store on Day 2, when Keeneland Race Course hosts 12 stakes races that include nine Breeders’ Cup stakes races with purses totaling $15 million. The culminating race — the Breeders’ Cup Classic — accounts for $6,00,000 of that total.
I’ll be taking you through my choices for winners and wannabes for each of those dozen stakes races.
Pick of the Day - 11/12/20 (Thursday). Enjoy the KnupSports free betting picks and don’t forget you can also get our Play of the Day on Facebook here. — As of July 12, 2018, we started tracking our individual results in our Picks Dashboard here. This should be a great Saturday! NCAA Football: Texas at Kansas State Oklahoma State at TCU Texas A+M at Auburn Kansas at Texas Tech.
While you’re checking those out, you might want to visit one of our recommended online racebooks, where you’ll find the complete list of today’s races as well as a multitude of wagering options.
Now read on for my picks and predictions for the Breeders’ Cup Classic and 11 more stakes races at Keeneland Race Course.
This is an ungraded stakes race for three-year-olds running a distance of six furlongs for a purse of $125,000.
I have to go with the 4/5 morning line favorite for this race — Nashville, with Ricardo Santana, Jr. in the irons. This colt won both of his career starts and has superior speed numbers for both.
At 15/1, I think Wild Wes, ridden by Mitchell Murrill, is a good value show bet. This gelding moneyed six of his eight career starts, winning two.
- Win: Nashville 4/5
- Show: Wild Wes 15/1
This is an ungraded stakes race for three-year-olds and upward running a distance of seven furlongs for a purse of $150,000.
My money is on the second-favored (5/1) entry — Sleepy Eyes Todd, with Joel Rosario aboard. This four-year-old colt finished in the money eight of 13 career starts, winning six. His most recent win was the Charles Town Classic Stakes (Gr. 2) in August.
The longest odds in this race are 12/1, and those just aren’t long enough to warrant the risk of a show bet.
- Win: Sleepy Eyes Todd 5/1
This is an ungraded stakes race for three-year-old fillies running a distance of six furlongs for a purse of $125,000.
I’m going with the third-favored (5/1) entry here — Artie’s Princess, ridden by Flavien Prat. This filly moneyed five of her six career starts and won four, with her most recent win the Ruling Angel Stakes (Black Type) at Woodbine in September.
At 12/1, I like Boerne, with Javier Castellano aboard. This filly moneyed five of her seven starts, four of them wins. Her most recent win was the Azalea Stakes (Listed) at Gulfstream Park in July.
- Win: Artie’s Princess 5/1
- Show: Boerne 12/1
Picks for the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (Race 4)
This is a Grade I stakes race for fillies and mares three years old and upward running a distance of seven furlongs for a purse of $1,000,000.
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I have to go with the 7/5 morning line favorite for this stakes race — Gamine, piloted by John R. Velazquez. This three-year-old filly moneyed four of her five career starts, three of them wins. Since her maiden back in March, she’s done little else but perform well in Grade I stakes races; her most recent win was the Longines Test Stakes (Grade 1) at Saratoga in August.
For a solid show wager, I like the 30/1 Inthemidstofbiz, ridden by Emmanuel Esquivel. This four-year-old filly finished in the money nine of her 13 starts, winning six.
Picks for the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Race 5)
This is a Grade I stakes race for three-year-olds and upward running a distance of 5-1/2 furlongs on turf for a purse of $1,000,000.
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Fun Fact: There are five entries in this 18-horse field at 12/1 morning-line odds.
I like the second-favored (4/1) Imprimis, jockeyed by Irad Ortiz Jr. for the win here. This six-year-old gelding had ten money finishes in 15 starts, eight of those wins.
For a value show bet, I like the 15/1 Bombard. This seven-year-old gelding moneyed 12 of his 15 starts, five of those wins.
Picks for the Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (Race 6)
This is a Grade I stakes race for three-year-olds and upward running a distance of one mile for a purse of $1,000,000.
I’m sticking with the 2/1 morning line favorite, Complexity, jockeyed by Jose L. Ortiz. This four-year-old colt moneyed six of his nine career starts, winning three.
At 20/1, I think Rushie, piloted by Javier Castellano, has a solid chance to finish in the money. This three-year-old colt moneyed six of his seven career starts, winning three. Show ticket only.
Picks for Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Race 7)
This is a Grade I stakes race for fillies and mares three years old and upward running a distance of 1-3/16 miles on turf for a purse of $2,000,000.
I’m sticking with the 5/2 morning line favorite here — Rushing Fall, with Javier Castellano in the irons. This five-year-old mare finished in the money 13 of her 14 career starts, winning 11 of them. She won her last three races — all graded stakes runs.
At 30/1, I have to like Mucho Unusual, piloted by Flavien Prat. This four-year-old filly moneyed 12 of her 16 career starts, winning five. Show bet only.
Picks for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (Race 8)
This is a Grade I stakes race for three-year-olds and upward running a distance of six furlongs for a purse of $2,000,000.
I agree with the morning line for this field, and I’m buying a win ticket for the 3/1 favorite — Vekoma, with Javier Castellano aboard. This four-year-old colt whiffed his shot at the 2019 Kentucky Derby with an embarrassing 12th place, but he hasn’t lost a race in 2020, including two Grade I matches and a Black Type stakes race. For the record, Vekoma moneyed seven of his eight career starts, winning six of them.
There’s another contender that might give Vekoma a run for the money: the second-favored (7/2) Yaupon, with Joel Rosario in the irons. This three-year-old colt won all four of his career starts, and the only reason I didn’t make him my pick for this race is Vekoma’s speed numbers and experience in Grade I stakes races. You might want to consider an across the board safety bet on Yaupon.
I like the 30/1 longshot Manny Wah, ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, for a value show bet. This four-year-old colt finished in the money 14 of his 20 career starts, winning three. In 2020, he’s moneyed all but one of his six starts.
- Win: Vekoma 3/1
- Across the Board: Yaupon 7/2
- Show: Manny Wah 30/1
This is a Grade I stakes race for three-year-olds and upward running a distance of one mile on turf for a purse of $2,000,000.
I’m going with the 4/1 morning line favorite in this race — the Brazilian import Ivar, ridden by Joseph Talamo. This four-year-old colt moneyed six of his seven career starts, winning five — his most recent, the Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes (Grade 1) here at Keeneland in October.
The longest odds I can go for a value show bet in this field are 15/1, which means I like March to the Arch, with Tyler Gaffalione aboard. This five-year-old gelding finished in the money 13 of his 24 career starts, winning seven. His 2020 record is even better: Five money finishes in seven starts, two of them wins.
- Win: Ivar 4/1
- Show: March to the Arch 15/1
Picks for the Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff (Race 10)
This is a Grade I stakes race for fillies and mares three-years-old and upward running a distance of 1-1/8 miles for a purse of $2,000,000.
For punters who like to bet trifectas, the first-place position is filled: It’ll be the 8/5 favorite, Monomoy’s Girl, ridden by Florent Geroux. This five-year-old mare moneyed all 14 of her career starts, and won 12 of them. In fact, she won the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Distaff stakes race. I guess once wasn’t good enough for her. Brava!
At 30/1, I like Point of Honor, with Javier Castellano aboard, for a value show bet. This four-year-old mare moneyed ten of her eleven career starts, winning three. She has, in fact, made quite a career for herself with money finishes in graded stakes races for the past two years.
Picks for the Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (Race 11)
This is a Grade I stakes race for three-year-olds and upward running a distance of 1-1/2 miles on turf for a purse of $4,000,000.
The 5/2 morning line favorite in this race, the five-year-old mare Magical, placed second in the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Turf at Churchill Downs — a brief US dalliance before returning to race tracks in Europe and the UK. Now she’s back Stateside to try for the win, with Ryan L. Moore in the irons. Her record is a veritable European tour guide for people who love graded stakes races: 20 money finishes in 26 career starts, 12 of them wins. I believe Magical will get her wish.
At 20/1, I think Red King, with top jockey Umberto Rispoli aboard, is a lock for a value show ticket. This six-year-old finished in the money for 18 of his 28 career starts, winning seven. In this unstable field of newer jockeys and inconsistently performing horses, I think Red King might even be worth an across the board.
- Win: Magical 5/2
- Show/Across the Board: Red King 20/1
Picks for the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic (Race 12)
This is a Grade I stakes race for three-year-olds and upward running a distance of 1-1/4 miles for a purse of $6,000,000.
My money’s on the 6/1 underdog for Authentic, ridden by John R. Velazquez. Not only does Authentic have a solid record of seven money finishes in seven starts, five of them wins, but he won this year’s Kentucky Derby, snatching victory from the jaws of Tiz the Law, who for some reason the morning line has at 3/1 for this race.
At 20/1, I like Global Campaign, with Javier Castellano in the irons, for a value show ticket. This four-year-old colt scored seven money finishes in nine starts, six of those wins.